Related To Story BARACK OBAMA |
Indiana Poll Shows Clinton With Big Lead Over Obama
Survey Taker: Pastor Controversy Possibly Big Factor
POSTED: 10:22 am EDT May 1,
2008
UPDATED: 6:33 pm EDT May 1,
2008
INDIANAPOLIS -- A statewide poll indicates a dramatic shift of support from Sen. Barack Obama to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of next week's Indiana Democratic presidential primary -- a shift that could be explained by a controversy over Obama's ex-pastor, the poll's conductor says.The survey, conducted by Indianapolis-based TeleResearch Corp. and released exclusively to 6News, showed Clinton with a 10-point lead over Obama in Indiana -- 48 percent to 38 percent -- with 14 percent of respondents undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.The telephone poll of 943 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters, conducted from April 25 through April 29, showed Clinton's support getting stronger as the polling period advanced.
On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a slim lead -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- despite a 20 percentage-point lead for Obama among male respondents.Each day, more respondents supported Clinton. By the last day of polling, Clinton had a 4 percent lead among men -- 45 percent to 41 percent -- representing a staggering 24-point swing in that demographic.Over the four days in which the survey was conducted, a controversy involving the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's former pastor, swelled."In that window, he dominated all the political news in the presidential race," said Jeff Lewis, TeleResearch CEO. "In that period of time, Obama's lead among men went from a 20 point lead on Friday … to a 4 point lead for Sen. Clinton."Among females, Clinton held a commanding lead of between 15 and 20 points."All the movement in the poll was on men, and this is a statewide survey," Lewis said. "So, it clearly indicated that men abandoned Obama as a result of the Rev. Wright."Obama campaign spokesman Kevin Griffis didn't downplay the survey but said he believes the senator from Illinois has moved on from the Wright problems."I don't think there's any secret that the campaign has had a little bit of a rough patch the last couple of days. But at the same time, today we picked up an incredibly important superdelegate, someone who'd been supporting Sen. Clinton," Griffis said.Griffis was referring to Joe Andrew, a former Democratic National Committee chairman who on Thursday switched his allegiance from Clinton to Obama.The Clinton campaign, though pleased with the TeleResearch numbers, rejected the notion that the Wright controversy led to the shift. Rather, the campaign said it believes Clinton's focus on issues was a larger factor."Sen. Clinton was in several parts of the state. She was talking about jobs, talking about the economy, talking about some of the challenges that Hoosiers are facing. Gas prices, that's something she's been talking about the last few days," spokesman Jonathan Swain said. "So, what I think is that her message is really resonating."TeleResearch's polling ahead of the last two Indiana gubernatorial elections proved to be an accurate predictor of those races' outcomes. In 2000, the firm's results matched the eventually winning margin of Frank O'Bannon, and its 2004 results came within 1 percentage point of Mitch Daniels' winning margin.Read: Full Indiana Democratic Presidential Survey Results Read: Poll Results Broken Down By Respondents' Ethnicity
Copyright 2008 by TheIndyChannel.com All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.








