Eric Berman, WIBC political and Statehouse reporter, shares his Oscars picks

Eric Berman , WIBC political and Statehouse reporter, and "certified Oscar geek," shares his Oscars picks:

Best Picture -- "Argo." In the last 80 years, only one movie has won Best Picture without its director being nominated. But "Argo" won the Golden Globe, the SAG and the Producers Guild; Affleck is widely believed to have been wrongly denied a nomination; the actors’ branch is the largest chunk of the Academy, and they’ll like honoring their own; and Hollywood loves movies about itself. Plus "Lincoln" seems too safe, even for the notoriously safe-leaning Academy. I smell an upset (which may not even qualify as an upset).

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln." His third one, and you’d think they’d spread it around…but he’s just SO good.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook." Lock.

Best Supporting Actor: Toughest acting category of the night. Only time in history that all the nominees are previous winners. I THINK it comes down to Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") and Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"). I’m going with Jones because: 1) He’s older. Hoffman will have more chances. 2) His previous Oscar was for an action flick (in which he was brilliant). This one is more of a capital-A Acting job. 3) He won the SAG, which suggests an edge.

Best Supporting Actress: Easiest call of the night: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables."

Best Director: Well, we know it won’t be Affleck…Spielberg probably gets some love here and his third Oscar, which helps make up for the ones he deserved and didn’t win before. Best shot at an upset: Ang Lee or the rookie, Benh Zeitlin.

Worst Movie Nominated for Any Oscar: "Snow White and the Huntsman." By a wiiiiiide margin.

Full list of celebrity picks | Oscars special section

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