Indianapolis News and Headlines

Actions

Monmouth University Poll shows Trump and Clinton within margin of error, Gregg leads Holcomb

Posted at 3:57 PM, Oct 14, 2016
and last updated 2016-10-14 16:22:32-04

With Election Day less than one month away, a new poll released by Monmouth University shows the tides are turning in the race for president, governor and senator. 

The poll of 402 Indiana residents likely to vote in November showed 45 percent support Donald Trump and 41 percent support Hillary Clinton, which is within the 4.9 percent margin of error.

About 9 percent support Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 5 percent are still undecided.

Trump's lead on Clinton is down from his 11-point lead in August, 47 percent to 36 percent.

The approval rate of the Republication candidate's vice presidential running mate, Gov. Mike Pence, has also dropped.

The poll finds 47 percent of Hoosiers approve and 44 percent disapprove of the job Pence is doing as governor.

Statistics from the poll show Trump with increased support from non-college graduates, leading with 53 percent against Clinton's 33 percent, but he lost support among college graduates, with 36 percent to Clinton’s 50 percent.

Trump has also lost support among women voters, according to the poll.

Two months ago his support from women was 44 percent to Clinton's 43 percent, and today those numbers have shifted to 38 percent for Trump and 47 percent for Clinton.

Despite the loss, he has a large lead among men in Indiana with 52 percent of the vote.

News of Trump’s sexual assault allegations narrowed the race, said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Trump’s support in his running mate’s home state was already eroding before the latest bombshell hit.  The news that broke Wednesday seems to have driven those numbers even lower,” he said.

The race for governor has opened up in favor of Democratic candidate John Gregg. In the course of two months, the race went from a virtual tie to a 12-point advantage for Gregg, according to Monmouth University.

Gregg is leading Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb by a 50 percent to 38 percent margin. Another 4 percent support Libertarian Rex Bell and 7 percent are undecided.

Holcomb's campaign manager Mike O' Brien issued a statement shortly after the Monmouth Poll was released Friday afternoon.

"This poll is a complete outlier and laughably inconsistent with every other public poll released this election season. Our internal data shows we are on a winning trajectory in this margin-of-error contest. After only 12 weeks on the campaign trail, compared to our opponent's 282-week campaign, we are in the passing lane headed into the home stretch of this race and remain confident that Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb will be Indiana's next governor."

The Holcomb campaign also responded by releasing their own internal polling results that sampled 800 people from Oct. 11-13, and it shows the race at 42 percent for Holcomb vs. 42 percent for Gregg, a tie.

In the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Dan Coats, the poll finds former Sen. Evan Bayh leads with 48 percent over Congressman Todd Young's 42 percent. These numbers are very similar to those found in August.

Six percent support Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton, and 4 percent are undecided.

RELATEDEvan Bayh reports income of $6.3 million since start of 2015

The poll projects while 74 percent of Trump supporters are backing Young, 18 percent will split their ticket and vote for Bayh. Among Clinton supporters, 87 percent will vote for Bayh and 7 percent will split their ticket for Young.

“Given the large amount of ticket splitting, it appears that some voters are actually voting more for Pence than Trump at the top of the ballot,” said Murray.

Indiana Republican State Chairman, Jeff Cardwell, released the following statement regarding poll numbers:

“Hoosiers know that Republican leadership works- we see it every day in our state. We have more people working now than ever before, a $2 billion surplus and businesses from other states continue to move here- Indiana has become the blueprint for the nation.

"Bold, conservative leadership works. Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Pence in the White House, Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb and Auditor Suzanne Crouch in the Statehouse, and Rep. Todd Young in the Senate is the game plan we need to take Indiana to the next level and to make America great again."

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 11 to 13, 2016. The poll with 402 Indiana residents likely to vote in the November election. 

This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.