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No Apology In Bracketology

Follow These Tips Before Picking Your Winners

John Boel


In addition to his regular news duties that have earned him more than 40 Emmy Awards, Louisville's WLKY NewsChannel 32 anchorman John Boel loves to write about sports, especially around tournament time and during Derby season here in Louisville, Ky.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- OK, you've been dusted every year in your attempt to predict the NCAA tournament. Here are 10 things to avoid when filling out your brackets:

  1. Don't pick the "home" team. Last year, I tallied all the brackets turned in in my pool here in Louisville. Just less than 70 percent picked Kentucky to win it all. That means if you picked Kentucky -- and if the Cats would have won -- you still would have had a slim chance of winning the pool. But if you would have picked anyone else, 70 percent of your competition got eliminated when Kentucky got beat.

  2. Tailor your selections based on the point scale. If you play a graduated point scale in which the points double each round, don't worry about the early games. You'll separate yourself from the others by picking the teams that will stick around the latest. But if you play one point per game all the way, then pay special attention to the first weekend's games.

  3. Have Duke or North Carolina in your Final Four. Duke or UNC or both have been in 18 of the past 24 Final Fours. Enough said.

  4. Do something different. Identify one team that no one else is touting that you think can make a decent run. After years of scoring the slew of brackets turned in, I've noticed most people do the same things. But if you cover the same favorites everyone else does, and you nail the Elite Eight or even Final Four team no one else nailed, you might create enough separation to help you win.

  5. Say no to up-tempo. Historically, the full court-pressing, kamikaze-style, 90-points-per-game teams flame out in the tournament, while the slow-down teams that excel at half-court offense and good defense go far.

  6. Pay no attention to how they got here. Everyone loves to trash the teams that back into the tournament and jump on the bandwagons of teams on a roll. The truth is, every year you can find a back-in team that started its roll in the tournament, as well as a hot team that flamed out fast.

  7. Pay attention to good road teams. Anyone can win at home. For example: Wisconsin's home win streak spanning several years. But what did the cheeseheads do in the tournament? Unless you are Illinois this year, you'll have to win on the road, often far away from home. Take a hard look at the teams that only lost once or twice on the road all year.

  8. Depth is nice, but it's overrated. The NCAA tournament is not the Ironman Triathlon. It's a few two-game tournaments spanning three weeks. College kids have boundless energy, especially when their season's on the line.

  9. Don't be a bracket geek and follow the games with your sheets in your hand. Only geeks do that. It's like counting your winnings at the poker table. No one wins Lotto by watching the numbers drawn live with their tickets in hand.

  10. Don't make fun of the people at work who don't know the difference between Oral Roberts and oral hygiene. Or those who can't distinguish between John Chaney and Lon Chaney. Many of them will beat you. Then, in a few weeks, they'll pick the Kentucky Derby winner based on the color of his pretty jockey silks.

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